Wal-Mart will bolster food banks

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. plans to significantly ramp up its donations to the nation’s food banks to total $2 billion over the next five years, the retail giant said Wednesday.

The company is more than doubling its annual rate of giving as the number of Americans receiving food stamps has risen to one in eight, and food banks are straining to meet demand.

Wal-Mart’s plan comes in two parts: At least $250 million in grants over five years will go to efforts such as buying refrigerated trucks, which help perishable items last longer to make it from store to charity, and programs to feed children during the summer when they’re not in school and receiving government meals.

But the bulk of the donations will consist of more than 1.1 billion pounds of food that doesn’t sell or can’t be sold because it’s close to expiration dates. About half will be fresh fruit, vegetables, dairy and meat — items that food banks say they’re seeing more demand for.

The company estimates the food will provide 1 billion meals. Store employees will even offer assistance to food banks to help run their operations more efficiently.

The move extends Wal-Mart’s sharp increases in donations in recent years. In 2009, the company spent $21 million on hunger relief and donated 116.1 million pounds of food, up from $12 million in cash and 42.7 million pounds of food in 2008.

Certainly, Wal-Mart’s donations are small compared with the need. Some 39.7 million people received food stamps in February, an increase of 22 percent from the same month last year. Wal-Mart’s donation would be enough to feed everyone now on food stamps about five meals a year.

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Barter exchanges offer flexibility and savings

Bartering has come a long way from the simple days when farmers traded cows for crops.

Michael Allton, who runs a website design company out of his home in Chesterfield, is saving thousands of dollars on his wedding in October by bartering his web services for miniature cakes, desserts and a wedding planner he found through Craigslist.

Larry Bachman, manager of Bachman Auto Glass, repairs 30 to 40 windshields a month in exchange for radio and print advertising as well as Rams and Cardinals tickets that he gives to clients.

And Dale Schotte, owner of Park Avenue Coffee in Lafayette Square, has swapped his gooey butter cakes for new labels to rebrand his online coffee and baked good businesses.

Allton, Bachman and Schotte are among the growing number of people who are turning to bartering — the trade of goods or services without cash — as a supplemental way to do business. In doing so, they say they preserve cash flow, find new customers and make the most of their excess inventory or time.

"We’re a growing business," said Schotte, who joined a barter exchange last summer. "The economy isn’t great. To grow, you need more resources, but banks are not loaning. So this is a fantastic opportunity for us. It gives us the flexibility to buy stuff and to pay it off over time. It’s almost like a line of credit. It lets us have cash now and pay later."

There are four barter exchanges in the St. Louis area. They each have between 100 and 800 members, with some business owners belonging to more than one. The barter companies allow businesses to build up and use trade credits with other members of the group. And if the exchange belongs to a national barter association, their members can potentially barter with thousands of businesses around the country.

In modern-day bartering, though, the transaction is not completely free. To belong to a barter exchange, business owners usually have to pay a monthly membership fee that ranges from $5 to $20 a month — as well as often an annual fee that could be a couple hundred dollars.

On top of that, barter exchanges charge service fees ranging from 6 to 12 percent on the retail cost of the good or service being traded.

THE EBB AND FLOW

Richard Harris, who runs National Commercial Exchange, one of the largest local barter companies, said some of his members began dropping out before the recession because their cash had dried up and they couldn’t pay the membership fees. But these days, he is seeing a big spike in people coming into the exchange because they are realizing that bartering can help them stay afloat and move ahead during the tough economic times, he said.

"We’re seeing people we dealt with many, many years ago," he said. "They left when business got really good. But now they are calling us back."

Harris has added about 35 new businesses to his 800-business exchange since January — triple the pace of new members over this time last year, he said.

It is an upward trend that Ron Whitney, executive director of the International Reciprocal Trade Association, has been seeing all over the country. The barter exchanges that are part of his group have seen a 10 to 50 percent increase in transaction volume in the past year, he said. New members include blue-chip companies as well as young startups.

Bartering is a good way to do business in a good economy, but it makes even more sense when times are bad, Whitney said.

"The beauty of what we do is we monetize that unused capacity," he said. "So in effect we’re turning nothing into something of value. If the hotel doesn’t sell that empty room tonight, that is lost revenue that they can never regain. If they barter it, they can turn that empty room into purchasing power. You can translate that analogy to virtually everything — whether it’s an empty chair at the dentist’s office or at a restaurant savings account payday loans."

Whitney ventures that bartering is bigger than ever before — not only because of the recession, but because of the ways that technology and the Internet have made bartering more sophisticated and widespread. These days, Craigslist has a large bartering section. There also are niche sites such as bookswap.com and homeforswap.com that allow people to find others around the country to trade with.

One-on-one trades between two people can be difficult because you have to find someone who wants what you have and vice versa, and then the value of the goods or services may not be equal, said Karen Hoffman, a St. Louis veteran of the barter industry who recently wrote a book, "The Art of Barter: How to Trade for Almost Anything," with former Post-Dispatch reporter Shera Dalin.

BARTER USEFULNESS

So that is why barter exchanges can be useful, because you don’t have to directly trade with the business that uses your service but can use the trade credit at another business in the group.

"But a company just limping by wouldn’t be good for barter because they would have to pay membership fees," she said. "And if you’re doing really well — are at capacity — then you don’t have the time or need barter either."

Barter exchanges have been around since the 1950s — and in the St. Louis area, since at least the early 1980s.

"In the beginning, being a new industry, there was a learning curve," Hoffman said. "There were the charlatans and there were those with good intentions, but people without business backgrounds."

The stories of barter exchanges’ going under because they allowed members to take more than they received are fairly rare today as the industry — mostly unregulated — has matured. A couple of national associations provide a code of ethics and some guidelines on best practices.

Harris said he functioned not unlike a bank and sometimes ran credit checks on his members. And he works to make sure members do not "buy" more goods and services than they can pay back through trade.

Occasionally — once every couple of months — he will kick a business out of the exchange if there are complaints about the quality of service or if the business is inflating the price of its service.

Bachman had a bad experience with a barter exchange in another state. He had accumulated $6,000 in credit, but then could not find other businesses in the exchange he wanted to or could trade with.

"If that would have been my first experience with barter, I would have thought it is just for the birds," he said.

But he said he was glad he didn’t let that sour him because he had been very pleased working with Harris’ exchange.

Susan Steck runs St. Louis Trade Exchange — an independent franchise of the national ITEX Corp. — with her husband and daughter. Her 223 members include the River City Rascals and Funny Bone Comedy Club as well as landscapers, hairdressers, hotels, cleaning companies and radio stations. A couple of parents have even been able to trade their credits in for their children’s tuition at Lindenwood University through her exchange.

Jeff Citrin, a chiropractor, joined a barter exchange about five years ago. He gets a new client or two every month through bartering, and he then trades in the credits when his car or work computers break down. The barter exchange ends up being a form of marketing for his business.

"It gets people in the door that wouldn’t otherwise be coming in," he said. "We just today had someone in who liked it so much they were going to send their husband in tomorrow."

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Rex Energy posts $2M profit

Rex Energy Corp. (NASDAQ: REXX) posted net income of $2 million, or 5 cents per share for the first quarter, a significant swing compared with a loss of $1 million, or 4 cents per share, during the comparable period in 2009.

The State College-based oil and gas firm has ramped up its drilling in Marcellus Shale. It announced a 127 percent increase in daily production of natural gas during the first quarter this year, compared with the first quarter last year. Oil extraction still accounts for 59 percent of the company’s production.

Rex doubled its revenue for the company's first quarter, going from $8.8 million to $16.8 million year over year.

The company is in the middle of constructing a cryogenic gas processing plant in Butler County which is awaiting final regulatory approval. Rex expects it will go online during the fourth quarter of 2010.

In December, Rex announced it was forming a joint venture called Keystone Midstream Services LLC with Colorado-based Stonehenge Energy Resources.

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Wells Fargo posts $2.5 billion profit

Wells Fargo Co. said Wednesday that first-quarter profit fell versus the same period last year, although the results were better than analysts expected.

The San Francisco-based bank reported first-quarter net income of $2.5 billion, or 45 cents per share, for the first three months of 2010. That’s down from net income of $3.05 billion, or 56 cents per share, in the first quarter of 2009.

The results included a charge of 5 cents per share related to the integration of Wachovia Bank, which Wells bought in 2007.

Analysts had forecast earnings of 42 cents per share, according to Thomson Reuters.

Shares fell about 1.7% to $33.11 in morning trading.

Wells said profits rose across all business segments and that credit conditions have "turned the corner" from the weakness of the financial crisis.

John Stumpf, Wells Fargo’s chief executive, said he was "encouraged" by improvements in credit conditions at the bank. But he warned that the economy "continues to present challenges" and cautioned that consumer spending and borrowing remain below past levels.

Wells said loan writedowns in the quarter totaled $5.3 billion, or 2.71% of average loans, down slightly from $5.4 billion the previous quarter.

Mike Loughlin, chief credit and risk officer at Wells, said loan losses and provision expenses peaked in the fourth quarter of 2009, adding that those costs will continue to decline going forward.

In addition, Wells said early-stage delinquencies on consumer loans improved in the quarter. Delinquencies declined across all of Wells’ major consumer loan portfolios, including home equity, auto loans and credit cards.

"Our credit picture has improved earlier than we had anticipated," Loughlin said.

Bernstein analyst John McDonald said Wells has lagged its peers a bit in recovering from the credit crisis, but he added that Wells’ purchase of Wachovia has positioned the bank for long-term growth.

"We like the franchise and earnings power story at Wells Fargo, as it begins to capitalize on growth opportunities from the Wachovia acquisition and realize meaningful credit leverage in 2011 and beyond," McDonald wrote in a research report.

Despite an improved credit picture, the results showed that loan demand remained weak in the quarter. Mortgage originations, for example, totaled $76 billion in the first quarter, down from $94 billion in the prior quarter.

"While we continued to supply significant amounts of credit to consumers and businesses in the first quarter, as we have done throughout the credit crunch, loan demand remained soft," said Howard Atkins, chief financial officer at Wells.

Meanwhile, the bank had a total of $31.5 billion worth of "nonperforming assets" on its books, up 14% from $27.6 billion in the year-ago period. Wells said it expects to continue holding a high level of nonperforming assets in the near term.

Foreclosed assets increased 30% in the quarter. But Wells said it continued to help struggling homeowners remain in their homes, with over 500,000 active and completed trial mortgage modifications in the quarter.

"There have been times in my life I’ve been upside-down on a mortgage," Stumpf told analysts in a conference call. "And if you get people a job and they want to stay in their home, they pay."

Wells’ (WFC, Fortune 500) results were the latest in a string of better-than-expected quarterly profits in the banking sector. JP Morgan (JPM, Fortune 500), Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and other big financial names have reported blockbuster profits in recent days.  

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Jobless claims in another surprise surge

The number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance for the first time jumped for the second week in a row, according to government data released Thursday.

There were 484,000 initial jobless claims filed in the week ended April 10, up 24,000 from an unrevised 460,000 the previous week, according to the Labor Department’s weekly report.

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected new claims to fall to 440,000 in the latest week. The number of new claims was the highest since the week ended Feb. 20, when initial claims totaled 486,000.

The Labor Department also tracks the four-week moving average of initial claims, which smoothes out volatility in the measure. That number reached 457,750 for the week, up 7,500 from the previous week’s downwardly revised average of 450,250.

The Labor Department attributes the jump in initial claims to volatility related to the Easter holiday and other so-called "administrative" factors.

"I agree with this because all of the labor market indicators are looking up" said Gus Faucher, senior economist for Moody’s Economy.com.

The number of people filing continuing claims totaled 4,639,000 in the week ended April 3, the most recent data available. That figure was up 73,000 from the preceding week’s 4,556,000 claims, and above the 4.58 million economists expected, according to Briefing.com.

The four-week moving average for continuing claims totaled 4,638,500, down 13,750 from the preceding week’s revised average of 4,652,250.

Continuing claims data exclude people whose benefits expired or those who have moved to state or federal extensions. It reflects those filing each week after their initial claim until the end of their standard benefits, which usually last 26 weeks.

Lawmakers in the House and Senate have moved closer to approving an extension of unemployment insurance. In March, the government instituted a number of tax breaks for businesses and other measures to spark job growth and bring down the national unemployment rate, which hovers at 9.7%.

Jobless claims jumped the most in Pennsylvania, with an increase of 5,314, primarily due to more layoffs in the construction, service, food, and transportation industries.

New Jersey and Illinois rounded out the top three states with the largest climb in new claims. Conversely, Texas, California, and Florida were the top three states with the largest declines in initial claims.

The report comes on the heels of a spate of upbeat economic data, including Wednesday’s strong retail sales report and low inflation reading. And earlier in April the government reported that the U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in March.

Faucher warned against reading too much into weekly reports, as recent indicators, including hiring surveys, point to continued, albeit slow, growth in non-farm payrolls.

"Week-to-week numbers can be volatile," said Faucher. "It will work itself out over the next few weeks."  

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Questions still abound in WaMu’s 2008 seizure

Two federal investigations into Washington Mutual’s regulators released Thursday paint a stark picture of warring federal agencies that disagreed on policing the Seattle bank, but the findings fail to answer key questions about why the nation’s largest savings-and-loan was shut down in September 2008.

In one particularly heated email released as part of one investigation, the former head of the Office of Thrift Supervision, WaMu’s main regulator, wrote to another OTS official: “I cannot believe the continuing audacity of this woman,” referencing Sheila Bair, the chairwoman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC).

Both John Reich, the former head of the OTS who sent the email, and Bair will testify about their role in WaMu’s oversight at a congressional hearing Friday morning, beginning at 6:30 a.m. Pacific Time.

In a Washington, D.C., news conference Thursday, the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations said that Washington Mutual’s extensive foray into risky lending led to the bank’s failure on Sept. 25, 2008, and that regulators were forced to move in because of its shaky financial position.

The congressional group’s own investigation was bolstered by the long-anticipated release of a separate government examination into the bank’s seizure. In that report, the Office of the Inspector General of the FDIC and the U.S. Treasury Department also pointed toward WaMu’s pursuit of a high-risk lending strategy as the reason for its failure. The groups were not working together, according to the subcommittee.

The abrupt closure of Washington Mutual wiped out an estimated $7 billion in shareholder wealth nationwide and internationally, including the value of millions of shares held by WaMu employees and Seattle residents. The bank’s assets were sold to JPMorgan Chase for a fraction of their worth. The two investigations did not look into JPMorgan’s role.

The Senate Permanent Subcommittee, which is holding hearings this week into WaMu’s collapse, has so far not released details of the bank’s financial picture at the time the government seized it, saying that the focus of its investigation was on WaMu’s mortgage lending operations. The IG’s report also lacks that information, although it provides data on WaMu’s mortgage lending.

The subcommittee said WaMu was left holding an extensive amount of subprime loans that it couldn’t offload when it collapsed, and it blamed a $16.7 billion bank run in the two weeks before its seizure as another factor for its takeover. Also at play, according to the subcommittee, was WaMu’s inability to access funds from the Federal Reserve’s discount window and Federal home loan banks.

“They could not sell anything, basically, anymore in the subprime area,” said Sen no faxing pay day loans. Carl Levin, D-Michigan, who is the chair of the committee.

When asked if he thought WaMu was improperly seized, Levin said he didn’t know.

“That wasn’t really our focus,” he said.

The Puget Sound Business Journal, in an investigation into WaMu’s failure published last year, found that the bank had sufficient liquidity — fast access to cash — when the government stepped in.

WaMu’s net liquidity level on the day of its seizure — 9.4 percent of total assets — was significantly higher than some community banks that are currently operating. That number also takes into account the amount of bills WaMu had coming due.

What’s more, its two-week bank run was tapering off at the time of its seizure and its access to a least one funding source through the government was wholly intact, according to multiple sources familiar with the bank’s final days. The bank also met government standards to qualify as well-capitalized.

The IG report and the investigation by the Senate Permanent Subcommittee focus heavily on the role of the OTS, WaMu’s main regulator, and the FDIC, its backup regulator, in policing the bank’s risky mortgage loans.

Both investigations fault the OTS more heavily for allowing WaMu’s lending to spiral out of control, although the FDIC also is criticized in the IG report. Specifically, the IG report faults the OTS for failing to lower WaMu’s CAMELS rating — an internal measure of a bank’s health — until just before the bank was closed.

“We concluded that OTS should have lowered WaMu’s composite CAMELS sooner and taken stronger enforcement action sooner to force WaMu’s management to correct the problems identified by the OTS,” the IG report concludes.

Both investigations depict the heated disagreement between both agencies over WaMu’s oversight, particularly in its final months, a tension that was reported in the Puget Sound Business Journal’s articles last year. The material was gathered from hundreds of internal emails that are expected to be released April 16.

According to the investigations, the OTS withheld information from the FDIC about WaMu because the agency did not believe that the FDIC met the terms of an inter-agency agreement in place between the two agencies.

Excerpts of emails released by the Senate Permanent Subcommittee illustrate the OTS withholding information from the FDIC about WaMu and the FDIC’s frustration. The Puget Sound Business Journal received copies of these emails as part of a Freedom of Information Act last year, but they were largely blacked out.

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Whole Foods installs car charging station at Austin store

Whole Foods Markets Inc. has installed an electric car charging station at its flagship store in downtown Austin.

The Austin-based natural foods grocer is hosting a kickoff event this morning at 10 a.m., which will be attended by Austin City Council member Chris Riley and executives from Whole Foods, Austin Energy and or the Coulomb Technologies.

The charging station is a part of Coulomb’s ChargePoint Network, which is open to all plug-in vehicle drivers. Users can sign up for a monthly access plan with ChargePass smart card, or one-time charging by calling a number listed on the charging station.

"Whole Foods Market is committed to supporting wise environmental practices, which means making decisions that positively affect the health of our planet, its people, and its resources,” said Mark Dixon, Whole Foods southwest regional president.

“It is our hope that by offering electric vehicle charging we can support alternative transportation and help Austin residents decrease their environmental impact.”

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USD 259 board to consider proposal to cut $4.2M

The Wichita School Board will consider on Monday a list of potential cuts that could shave $4.2 million from the district’s budget.

Proposed cuts include reducing overtime by 50 percent, reducing district-supported field trips, extending technology replacements, eliminating four school resource officer positions and implementing a district-wide shut down from Dec. 23 through Jan. 2.

The district is trying to keep cuts as far away from the classroom as possible as it tries to reduce its budget by $25 million. USD 259 already has trimmed $2.5 million by altering the start and end times at eight elementary schools. That change eliminates the need for more than 70 buses to run extra routes.

Phase one cuts and the proposed second round of reductions amount $6.7 million.

Here’s a look at some of the proposed cuts and the amounts they could save:

• Reduce overtime by 50 percent — $1.5 million.

• Reduce district-supported field trip transportation at the elementary level — $100,000.

• Extend the district’s five-year technology replacement plan to six years — $500,000.

• Reduce meeting/conference/workshop expenses — $365,968.

• Reduce mileage reimbursement rate from 50 and a half cents per mile to 25 cents — $300,000.

• Delay purchase of student textbook adoptions — $1 million.

• Suspend new appointments to the Grow Your Own Teacher program — $50,000.

• Implement a district-wide winter shut down from Dec. 23 through Jan. 2, 2011 — $120,000.

• Eliminate the remaining four school resource officers at the district’s middle schools — $232,710.

Additional cuts will be determined in the coming months.

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Tussle over health care law impact on companies

A growing number of major U.S. corporations are expecting to take tax charges in the first quarter related to the recently enacted health care reform law.

But while some companies are fretting about the charges, defenders of the law say the new rules merely close a loophole that allowed a double-dip benefit.

On Wednesday, Boeing (BA, Fortune 500) became the latest company to disclose that the law, which was signed by President Obama last week, will negatively impact its financial results.

The aeronautics company expects to take an income tax charge of roughly $150 million, or 20 cents per share, in the first quarter of 2010 as a result of the law.

AT&T (T, Fortune 500) said last week that it expects to book a $1 billion charge in the first quarter in anticipation of costs resulting from health care reform. That came after similar announcements from Deere (DE, Fortune 500) and Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500).

The charges stem from a part of the law that eliminates tax deductions for Medicare prescription drug subsidies.

When the Medicare prescription drug program was passed in 2003, it included a provision granting employers a subsidy of 28%, or up to $1,330, per retiree for prescription drug costs.

Even though the federal subsidies were already tax free, employers could still write them off on their income taxes, in addition to writing off their own contribution. The new law maintains the subsidy as a tax-free incentive to employers, but prohibits them from taking it as a deduction.

While the provision does not go into effect until 2013, the companies said accounting standards require that the charges be recorded during the period in which the law was signed.

Obama administration officials have defended the change by arguing that the previous law essentially allowed for two deductions - one for the employer’s own contribution, and another for the tax-free federal subsidy.

"This bill, our bill simply closes the loophole and allows them to deduct that money one time by not counting it as income," said White House spokesman Robert Gibbs in a news conference last week.

However, critics of the provision say the financial hit will force companies to delay hiring and scale back benefits for existing employees.

"This is potentially devastating news for unemployed Americans who are waiting for the job-creating engine of our economy to rev up again," Tom Donohue, president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, wrote in a letter to members of the Chamber’s board Monday.

In addition, critics say removing the subsidy will deter employers from providing full health care benefits, which would force more workers to rely on Medicare and end up shifting the cost to the public sector.

"The government will soon find out that by raising the cost for these companies they’re incenting employers to drop these plans and send their employees into the Medicare program," said Chamber spokeswoman Blair Latoff.

AT&T highlighted those concerns last week when it said it’s considering unspecified changes to its employee benefit as a result of the legislation. But a spokesman for Boeing, John Dern, said the company currently has no plans to alter its employee benefits.

– CNNMoney.com staff reporter Annalyn Censky contributed to this report.

An early version of this story misstated who the letter was addressed to. CNNMoney.com regrets the error. 

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The coming inflation wave

Whether the American economy is in an inflationary or deflationary environment sounds like it should be a fundamental and settled question. But due to the unprecedented financial crisis, the answer is actually subject to intense debate among economists.

Making economic projections is far from a scientific process, so it’s not surprising to find valid arguments on both sides of the divide. The economists who are right will help investors drive returns over the next three years.

Inflation can be a positive or negative, depending on the level and duration of it in our economy. The main negative associated with inflation is a drop in purchasing power of money, and therefore, consumers. In extreme cases, consumers may actually start hoarding if they fear continued and aggressive price increases. The positive side of inflation is to decrease the real value of debt, or essentially provide debt relief.

How do we measure the level and duration of inflation, to know whether it will help or hurt? In basic terms, inflation is a rise in prices of basic goods and services over a given period of time. In the United States, the government generally tracks inflation using the Consumer Price Index, or CPI.

Besides measuring inflation, CPI is also used to set income rates for more than 80 million people on entitlement programs. 48 million people on social security, 22 million food stamp recipients, and 4 million civil service retirees, have benefits tied to the CPI.

When inflation increases, so do their benefits. These payments are among the largest non-defense obligations in the federal budget. Not surprisingly, then, the government tends to understate inflation and has changed the way the CPI is calculated nine times since 1996.

Another common inflation metric is the Federal Reserve’s core inflation, which it uses to measure overall inflation. The Fed excludes food and energy prices to smooth out short-term volatility. However, based on government data, food and energy purchases make up 36% of the average consumer’s budget. The Fed’s inflation graph might look nice and smooth, but it’s probably not the best indicator for how your wallet feels when paying bills or buying groceries.

So, conventional measures of inflation are imperfect at best. Which may embolden economists who dispute the idea that we are in an inflationary environment. They argue that our economy is too slack to be inflationary.

With a 9.7% February unemployment rate (the worst for February since 1983) and capacity utilization is at 72.7% (7.9 percentage below the average from 1972 to 2009), the thinking is, what’s there to inflate? If employment and utilization of industry are low, then so are supply and demand which help set pricing levels. How, then, can prices possibly inflate?

Despite this argument, and primarily due to aggressively accommodative monetary policy in the United States and around the globe, we believe inflation is here, and poised to accelerate as all the slack in global economies begins to tighten. Measures of inflation for major nations around the globe give support to our conclusions: most of the G20 nations are reporting higher than normal inflation rates.

While we take some issue with the U.S. government’s calculation of inflation, even federal economists have reported inflating prices this year. The January CPI came in at 2.6% and February reported at 2.1%. We expect March figures to accelerate even further.

The U.S. treasury and currency markets have also showed inflation signs for months, with the dollar up and the price of treasury bonds down. Also, as we recently noted to our clients, fixed versus floating interest rate swaps have turned negative for the first time in over a decade.

This means investors are aggressively betting that floating interest rates will increase, because the Fed, as it becomes more concerned about inflation, tends to raise interest rates to try and slow it down.

Back in the treasury market, 30-year treasuries have gone from yielding 3.73% to yielding 4.72% over the last year. That increase has happened for shorter-term treasuries — the short end of the yield curve — as well. And all these increases have happened despite the fact the Fed has maintained its target rate at 0 — 0.25%. Bond yields, in other words, are already accounting for inflation.

Finally, in the chart at the top of this page, we’ve plotted the Journal of Commerce Industrial Price Index over the last year. This index charts the price of key commodities that are used in industrial production. The chart is up and to the right, screaming inflation. Commodity inflation will likely lead China to report its first trade deficit in March in 6 years!

As they say, the markets don’t lie, people do (or government statistics as the case may be). Based on the evidence above, we’re sticking with our inflation call — until the markets, and the data, tell us different.

Daryl G. Jones is the Managing Director of Risk Management at Hedgeye, a research firm based in New Haven, Conn. His colleagues Darius Dale and Matt Hedrick also contributed to this column. 

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